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The Hang Seng Index fell 202 points, or 0.9%, to 25,950 on Thursday, reversing gains from the previous session as investors locked in profits and adopted a more cautious stance ahead of key macroeconomic data. Sentiment was shaped by a mixed global backdrop. While US equities were supported by strong corporate earnings and improved risk appetite, regional markets remained more restrained as investors weighed geopolitical uncertainty linked to the US-Iran standoff and its potential impact on energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Elevated oil prices continued to fuel inflation concerns, keeping risk sentiment in check across Asian markets. Locally, attention is focused on Hong Kong’s March inflation data due later in the session, which could offer fresh signals on price pressures and influence expectations for monetary conditions. Among notable laggards were Tencent Holdings (-1.3%), AIA Group (-1.1%), Geely Automobile (-3.2%), Xiaomi Corporation (-1.5%), and Anta Sports (-1.1%).

Hong Kong Stocks Edge Lower on Cautious Sentiment

The dollar index held around 98.5 on Thursday, hovering at over one-week highs amid a lack of progress in peace efforts between the US and Iran, supporting safe-haven demand for the greenback. The Strait of Hormuz also remains effectively closed, as Tehran maintains control of the strategic waterway and has seized two vessels, while the US blockade of Iranian ports continues, contributing to elevated energy prices and heightened inflation risks. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump said the current truce would remain in place indefinitely as Washington awaits a new peace proposal from Iran. Persistent inflation concerns have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this year, while Fed nominee Kevin Warsh pledged to preserve the central bank’s independence from the White House. Investors now turn their attention to weekly jobless claims and upcoming PMI data for further signals on the US economic outlook.

Dollar Holds Firm on US-Iran Jitters

European natural gas futures rose above €44 per MWh on Thursday, extending gains for a fourth straight session amid fears of prolonged disruptions to LNG deliveries to Europe. Stalled peace negotiations and an open-ended ceasefire extension between the US and Iran have kept tensions elevated, leaving the Strait of Hormuz in gridlock. Iran has kept the Strait closed to most international shipping, with its forces reportedly firing on commercial vessels in the waterway on Wednesday. At the same time, the US has maintained a blockade on ships traveling to and from Iranian ports. Since the conflict began in late February, LNG exports from the region have effectively come to a halt, disrupting nearly one-fifth of global supply. This has raised serious concerns for Europe, particularly as the region needs to rebuild gas stocks ahead of winter.

TTF Prices Extend Gains

Australian shares fell 50 points, or 0.6%, to 8,793 in early Thursday trade, retreating for a third session and hovering at a two-week low. Sentiment was pressured by a sharp drop in U.S. equity futures following renewed Middle East uncertainty, as Iranian officials reportedly refused to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after President Trump’s ceasefire extension. Locally, households and businesses continue to grapple with high mortgage rates, soaring energy costs, and price strains from geopolitical conflicts. With the Reserve Bank set to meet next month, expectations are rising for another cash rate hike. Still, losses were partly offset by April PMI data showing signs of recovery in both manufacturing and services in Australia. Process industries, consumer non-durables, and financials led the decline, with major laggards from Lynas Rare Earths (-5.1%),  Aristocrat Leisure (-2.2%), and Medibank Private (-3.5%). The four big banks dropped between 0.2% and 1.3%.

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