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The New Zealand dollar rose to around $0.596 on Friday, supported by expectations that the Reserve Bank will continue to tighten policy this year. Economists widely expect the RBNZ to raise its cash rate by another 25 basis points next week, with two-thirds anticipating at least one more hike, potentially taking the rate to 3% or higher by December. The outlook follows the RBNZ’s first rate increase in more than three years in July, when the central bank indicated that further tightening may be needed to bring inflation back to its target. Externally, investors are awaiting Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole speech later today for clues about the likelihood of a September rate move. Meanwhile, geopolitical developments continue to weigh on risk-sensitive assets, with reports that President Trump is no longer interested in reviving the June agreement with Iran. Despite Friday’s advance, the kiwi is down 0.2% for the week.

New Zealand Dollar Advances

The Indian rupee hovered around 95.5 per dollar, mostly trading in a tight range for the whole week as persistent Reserve Bank of India intervention and steady importer dollar demand kept the currency anchored. The rupee traded between 95.40 and 95.75 this week, as importer demand supported the lower end while RBI intervention limited downside. Oil prices near $90 a barrel have also been largely absorbed by the market, while the dollar remained steady near a one-week high ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s closely watched Jackson Hole speech. Meanwhile, the RBI gave banks greater flexibility to swap dollars raised through FCNR(B) deposits, allowing transactions above $100 million outside their designated weekly window to manage a surge in dollar liquidity. The special deposit scheme has attracted more than $65 billion ahead of its August 31 deadline, strengthening the RBI’s ability to manage rupee volatility.

Rupee Steady on RBI Support, Importer Demand

Coal prices climbed toward $140 per ton in late August, reaching a two-month high as robust global energy demand coincided with persistent concerns over supply. Coal remains the world’s largest source of power generation, producing nearly 11,000 TWh in 2026, while surging electricity demand is slowing efforts to displace the fuel with renewable energy. The IEA also expects coal to remain the largest single source of power generation through 2030, with no individual alternative coming close to replacing it. The prolonged Middle East conflict, which tightened global LNG supplies and drove energy prices higher, further strengthened the outlook for coal demand. Meanwhile, as many as 45 coal-fired power plants in India are operating with critically low coal stocks as electricity demand rises amid a strong El Niño, while supply has been disrupted by monsoon rains.

Coal Surges to 2-Month High

Singapore’s domestic supply price index climbed 33.4% year-on-year in July 2026, accelerating from a downwardly revised 29.8% increase in the previous month. The increase was mainly driven by higher prices for mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (46.4% vs 44.3%), machinery and transport equipment (42.3% vs 35.1%), and manufactured goods (5.0% vs 5.8%). The non-oil domestic supply price index also rose to 29.3% from 25.2%. On the other hand, price growth eased for chemicals and chemical products (11.1% vs 13.4%) and crude materials (19.4% vs 19.5%). Prices for food and live animals fell 1.2%, narrowing from a 1.8% decline in June. On a monthly basis, the domestic supply price index rose by 2.3% in July, rebounding from an upwardly revised 3% drop in the preceding period.

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