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South Africa’s 10-year bond yield fell to near 8.63% from recent one-month highs of 8.85%, as growing optimism over a potential resolution to the US-Iran conflict eased inflation pressures. Oil prices extended losses after US President Trump said that "great steps have been made toward a comprehensive agreement" and suspended Project Freedom in the Strait of Hormuz. In South Africa, inflationary pressures remain elevated due to higher energy prices and fertilizer shortages. The inflation rate edged up to 3.1% in March from 3% a month earlier and is expected to quicken in the months ahead. The South African central bank has signalled uncertainty over the near-term policy outlook, while reiterating its strong commitment to the inflation target. Governor Lesetja Kganyago said the bank remains focused on anchoring inflation at 3% and is prepared to act if needed to prevent second-round effects from emerging price pressures, suggesting a possible rate hike could be on the horizon.

South Africa 10-Year Bond Yield Drops

UK natural gas futures dropped more than 9% to around 104 pence per therm, the lowest level in two weeks, tracking a broader decline in energy markets as optimism grew over a potential end to the Middle East conflict and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Reports indicated the US and Iran are close to a preliminary agreement that could lead to wider nuclear talks, raising hopes of de escalation and easing supply disruption risks. President Donald Trump also announced a temporary halt to “Project Freedom,” a military operation aimed at securing shipping through the strait, citing progress in negotiations. The conflict and near closure of the key route had removed about a fifth of global LNG supply, pushing UK natural gas prices almost 50% higher. While most Middle East gas flows to Asia, the disruption has tightened global supply and increased competition, leaving Europe on alert as it works to rebuild gas inventories ahead of winter.

UK Natural Gas Futures Fall to 2-Week Low

European natural gas futures plunged more than 8% to below €43 per megawatt hour on Wednesday, as optimism grew over a potential US-Iran agreement to end the conflict. Reports indicated that Washington and Tehran are close to a preliminary deal that could pave the way for broader nuclear negotiations, boosting hopes of de escalation and easing supply risks. President Donald Trump also announced a temporary halt to “Project Freedom,” a military effort aimed at securing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, citing progress in talks. The conflict and near closure of the key waterway had disrupted around one fifth of global LNG supply, driving prices higher and unsettling energy markets. Although most Middle East gas flows to Asia, the disruption has tightened global supply and raised concerns in Europe, which needs to rebuild inventories ahead of winter. Storage levels are currently around 34%, well below the five year average, keeping traders cautious despite the improved outlook.

TTF Prices Fall Further

US crude oil inventories fell by 8.1 million barrels in the week ended May 1st, 2026, marking a third consecutive weekly decline and the largest draw in around three months, according to the American Petroleum Institute. The drop far exceeded expectations for a 2.8 million-barrel decline. Gasoline inventories decreased by 6.1 million barrels, following an 8.47 million-barrel draw the previous week, which had been the largest since March 2021. Distillate stockpiles, including diesel and heating oil, fell by 4.6 million barrels, extending their run of declines to five weeks. Meanwhile, inventories at Cushing declined by 1 million barrels, after falling by 0.82 million barrels in the prior week.

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