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Wheat futures fell to around $7.50 per bushel in early September, slipping away from a more than three-year high reached on August 28 as prospects for renewed grain shipments through the Black Sea eased supply concerns. Turkey said it is in talks with both Russia and Ukraine regarding the safe passage of grain exports and expressed its willingness to help revive the UN-backed agreement that previously facilitated Ukrainian grain shipments during the war. Wheat prices surged more than 16% in August as the Russia-Ukraine conflict severely disrupted grain flows through the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, key export routes that historically handled roughly 70% of Russia's grain exports. Meanwhile, renewed tensions in the Middle East have heightened concerns over potential energy supply disruptions from major oil-producing regions, driving crude oil prices higher and adding to broader uncertainty across commodity markets.

Wheat Futures Fall on Black Sea Export Hopes

Malaysian palm oil futures jumped near 2% to near MYR 4,900 per tonne, extending the previous session’s rally and hitting a one-week high as traders returned from a holiday. Sentiment was lifted by firmer edible oils on the Dalian and Chicago exchanges, along with a weaker ringgit. Stronger crude oil prices also provided support amid renewed concerns over potential supply disruptions. Meanwhile, growing El Niño risks added to concerns over drier conditions and potential production losses across Southeast Asia. However, gains were tempered by weak export demand and ample supplies. Cargo surveyors estimated Malaysian palm oil exports fell between 11.4% and 20% during August 1-25 from the same period in July, while inventories climbed to a five-month high in July, reinforcing concerns over supply pressure. Demand from India could also face headwinds as refiners favour cheaper soyoil, although expectations for strong August vegetable oil imports may provide some underlying support.

Palm Oil Extends Gains as Malaysian Markets Reopen

The Indian rupee rose to around 94.9 per dollar, rebounding sharply to an eight-week high, as persistent Reserve Bank of India intervention and favourable near-term momentum outweighed pressure from elevated US Treasury yields and higher oil prices. The rupee was also supported by flow-related dollar selling, while India’s GDP expanded 7.8% year-on-year in the June quarter of 2026, exceeding market expectations. However, gains could be limited as importers are expected to increase hedging at current levels, while the RBI’s FX forward book reached a record $137 billion in July. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.778%, its highest since January 2025, while Brent crude rose to around $91.14 a barrel as renewed US-Iran tensions heightened inflation concerns. Traders also assessed India’s fiscal position as the fiscal deficit narrowed to INR 4.6 trillion in April-July from INR 4.7 trillion a year earlier, reaching 26.8% of the full-year target versus 29.9% previously.

Rupee Strengthens to 8-Week High

Soybean futures climbed above $12.8 per bushel, hitting their highest level in almost three years as the Trump administration’s latest biofuel policy boosted expectations for soybean demand. The EPA granted 1.76 billion renewable fuel credits in small-refinery exemptions for the 2025 compliance year, nearly double its earlier estimate. However, the agency plans to shift the difference between projected and actual exemptions into the 2026 and 2027 mandates, effectively preserving the lost biofuel demand in future years. The move eased concerns that expanded refinery waivers would trigger a significant decline in crop demand. Soybeans are a key biodiesel feedstock, making biofuel mandates crucial for demand. Meanwhile, Chinese buying has remained supportive, with US exporters reporting multiple sales to China for 2026/27 delivery, including 333,000 metric tons on August 26, following purchases of 488,000 tons on August 3, 238,000 tons on August 7 and 244,000 tons on August 12.

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