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The Ibovespa fell nearly 1% to trade below 188,000 on Tuesday as investors awaited earnings reports while monitoring inflation data and rising oil prices. Vale and WEG, both down 1%, are scheduled to report earnings today and tomorrow respectively. On the data front, mid-month inflation rose to 0.89% in April from 0.44% in March. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, fears of an energy shock sparking global inflation persist. Although the central bank is expected to cut interest rates on Wednesday, investors worry that energy-driven stagflation could force a more hawkish stance later this year. Banks traded lower, with Itaú down 0.4% and Bradesco shedding 0.8%. Utilities also declined, with Axia down 1.1% and Sabesp falling 2.5%. In the telecommunications sector, both Vivo and TIM lost nearly 3%. In contrast, Petrobras gained 1% on rising oil prices.

Ibovespa Falls on Inflation Fears

The South African rand edged down toward 16.6 per USD, holding close to the lowest since April 7, as traders sought refuge in the greenback amid ongoing Middle East uncertainty and rising oil prices. At the same time, prices of key precious metals such as gold fell, as investors weighed heightened inflation concerns ahead of key central bank decisions. All eyes turn to the US Federal Reserve, which is expected to hold interest rates steady at what may be Jerome Powell’s final meeting as chair, with investors closely watching for signals on future policy shifts. South African Governor Lesetja Kganyago recently signaled that the central bank will react to any persistent inflationary pressures from the Middle East conflict, and reiterated its strong commitment to the 3% target. Economists remain split on the policy outlook, with some forecasting the benchmark rate to stay at 6.75% through year-end, while others anticipate at least a 25-basis-point hike in May.

South African Rand Near 3-Week Lows

The Federal Reserve's Fifth District manufacturing index rose by 3 points from the previous month to 3 in April of 2026, contrasting with market expectations of a contraction in activity at -5 to reflect the first improvement since February of last year. The result was aligned with other leading indicators for the period as the goods producing sector is showing a degree of resilience to soaring energy prices and supply chain disruptions from the war in the Middle East. The gauge measuring new orders rose further (8 vs 4 in March), even though shipments held their slight drop (unchanged at -2). Meanwhile, local business conditions improved (10 vs -5), driving firms to halt the drop in their employment levels (0 vs -2). Prices paid for inputs rose further (6.4 vs 6.11), although prices charged slowed (4.73 vs 4.85). Looking ahead, the outlook slowed for shipments (21 vs 26) and new orders (26 vs 30).

5th District Manufacturing Unexpectedly Rebounds

The Fifth District Service Sector Activity remained relatively solid in April, as the revenues index held steady at 9, while the demand index eased to 10 from 21 but stayed in positive territory, pointing to continued expansion. Expectations remained strong, with forward-looking indexes for both revenues and demand firmly positive. The local business conditions index slipped to -6 from 2, while the outlook index edged down slightly to 6. Employment conditions softened modestly, with the current index falling to 6 from 9, though the forward-looking measure rose to 25, signaling hiring optimism. Wage growth remained stable, and firms continued to expect increases, while price pressures picked up slightly but are seen easing ahead.

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