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Rubber futures rose to around 241 US cents per kilogram in early September, moving back near their highest level since 2013, supported by signs of tightening supplies. Indonesia’s natural rubber exports declined 21% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2026, according to Qinrex, raising concerns over tighter supply from one of the world’s leading producers. El Niño, ongoing haze, and forest fires are expected to further constrain Indonesian rubber output in the coming months. In Thailand, heavier rainfall is expected through mid-September, which could further disrupt tapping activity and reduce latex collection. Meanwhile, the end of Southeast Asia’s peak tapping season in September is expected to further tighten regional supplies. Adding to the upward pressure, crude oil prices continued to surge amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, raising production costs for synthetic rubber and making natural rubber relatively more attractive as a substitute.

Rubber Moves Toward 2013 Highs

Zinc prices surpassed $4,000 per tonne for the first time since 2022, as the market faced significant supply pressures. Production disruptions at several mines, including in China, have raised concerns over concentrate availability, while heightened tensions in the Middle East have restricted Iranian ore shipments. Major zinc mines, including Antamina in Peru and Red Dog in Alaska, have seen output decline as they work through lower-grade sections of their ore bodies, while several producers have also reported weaker production. At the same time, LME warehouse inventories remain low relative to historical levels, while physical zinc availability remains particularly tight outside China. The tightness is also evident in sharply lower smelter treatment charges, signaling a shortage of zinc concentrate for processing. However, rising zinc exports from China could provide some relief to supply conditions in other major markets.

Zinc Tops $4,000 Amid Supply Concerns

Sterling edged up to $1.354 as renewed inflation concerns reinforced expectations for further Bank of England rate hikes. Brent crude briefly touched $100 a barrel, while UK natural gas prices climbed to their highest level since late 2022 as escalating tensions in the Middle East heightened concerns over energy supplies. Markets are fully pricing in a 25-basis-point BoE rate increase by December, followed by two further hikes in 2027. For the September 17 meeting, however, policymakers are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. Speaking to lawmakers in Parliament on Tuesday, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey pushed back against the view that another rate increase is simply a matter of time, stressing that future decisions would depend on evolving economic and geopolitical developments. Meanwhile, MPC member Megan Greene, who voted for a rate hike in July, warned that a prolonged oil-price shock could lead to more persistent inflation expectations.

Sterling Gains as Markets Price Further BoE Rate Hikes

The UK 10-year gilt yield stood at 5.2%, remaining close to 19-year highs as investors increasingly priced in the prospect of further Bank of England rate hikes amid renewed inflation concerns. Brent crude briefly touched $100 a barrel, while UK natural gas prices climbed to their highest level since late 2022 as escalating tensions in the Middle East heightened concerns over energy supplies. Markets are fully pricing in a 25 bp BoE rate increase by December, followed by two further hikes in 2027. For the September 17 meeting, however, policymakers are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. Speaking to lawmakers in Parliament on Tuesday, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey sought to push back against the notion that another rate increase is simply a matter of time, stressing that the decision would depend on evolving economic and geopolitical developments. Meanwhile, MPC member Megan Greene warned that a prolonged oil-price shock could lead to more persistent inflation expectations.

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