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Futures tracking the S&P/TSX Composite Index fell on Monday as fears of an unraveling US Iran ceasefire rattled markets. The US seized an Iranian vessel and Tehran vowed retaliation, while Iran lifted and then reimposed its blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran also ruled out a second round of negotiations before the ceasefire expires on April 21st. Oil prices surged on renewed shipping disruptions, reigniting stagflation fears, lifting bond yields, and pressuring financials and the broader index. Also, gold retreated, weighing on mining stocks. Energy producers, however, are set to rebound on the oil spike.

TSX Futures Drop as US-Iran Ceasefire Threatens to Unravel

Futures tracking US equities were sharply lower on Monday, pausing the surge from last week that saw repeated record-breaking sessions as renewed doubts of peace prospects in the Middle East and threats to their energy supply. Contracts for the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq 100 were around 0.5% lower. Iranian officials reversed Friday's signal that they would allow all vessels to cross the Strait of Hormuz, a move that would start the restoration of global energy flows and pave the way for peace with the US. The conflict was further escalated by US forces targeting an Iranian container ship, jeopardizing success for negotiators. Heavyweight tech companies were sharply lower pre-market, setting the pace for riskier assets on speculative technologies. Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, and Oracle fell 1%, while Tesla and Intel dropped over 1% ahead of their earnings this week.

US Futures Fall from Records

The infrastructure output in India fell by 0.4% annually in March of 2026 following the upwardly revised 2.8% increase in the previous month, reflecting the first period of contraction since October of the previous year and only the fourth monthly contraction since the start of 2021. The drop reflected an immediate impact on the energy shock from the outbreak of war in the Middle East, which triggered energy shortages in Asia and a surge in the prices of petrochemicals. Fertilizer production plunged by 24.6% as firms were unable to source regular levels of natural gas feedstock. Output was also lower for coal (-4%) and crude oil (-5.7%). In turn, steel (2.2%) and cement (4%) continued to expand on the strong momentum for construction inputs.

India Infrastructure Output Contracts

India's BSE Sensex closed virtually unchanged at 78,520 on Monday, hovering around six-week highs, as rising crude oil prices and renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East outweighed strong quarterly earnings from banks. Fresh escalation between the US and Iran over the weekend, including disruption to shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz raised uncertainty over future negotiations and the trajectory of the ceasefire. This led to selective buying in sectors such as power, capital goods and consumer durables. Meanwhile, the ongoing Q4 earnings season was closely watched. SBIN surged 2.5% and led gains among bank stocks, on prospects of improved earnings. ICICI Bank rose 0.7% after beating fourth-quarter earnings estimate, while HDFC Bank fell 0.6% due to its weaker-than-expected net interest margin.

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