オーストラリア家計消費支出（前月比）

オーストラリア家計支出前年比

ニュージーランド1年債オークション

ニュージーランド3か月の請求書オークション

Australian stocks were almost flat, hovering around 8,674 on Tuesday morning deals after logging modest gains in the prior session. Strength in consumer durables, tech, and manufacturing was offset by weakness in commercial services, utilities, and energy minerals. Traders are awaiting August household spending later today, after a third straight month of increases in July, while inflation figures are also due in the coming days. On the monetary front, the Reserve Bank will deliver a policy decision later today, with markets expecting a further tightening following three hikes since the start of the year as inflation remains sticky. On Wall Street, equities ended lower overnight amid rising U.S. Treasury yields and volatility from geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices. Top movers included Codan Ltd. (16.4%), South32 Ltd. (2.6%), and Nextdc Ltd. (1.2%). On the downside, Greatland Resources (-2.3%), Cochlear Ltd. (-2.0%), and Regis Resources (-1.2%) underperformed.

Australia Shares Subdued Ahead of RBA Rate Call

Soybean futures fell below $12.9 per bushel, hitting their lowest level in four weeks as disappointment over the latest US-China trade agreement weighed on demand prospects. China agreed to reduce tariffs on a range of US agricultural products, including corn, wheat, soyoil and soymeal, but US soybeans were excluded, leaving them subject to an additional 10% tariff, which continues to discourage Chinese buyers. Chinese state-owned buyers have purchased more than 12 million tonnes of US soybeans, nearly half of the 25 million tonnes the White House said Beijing committed to buying annually through 2028, but no new purchase commitments were announced and the trade truce was extended only through January 10. Meanwhile, the USDA reported harvest at 17% complete as of September 27, matching the five-year average, while export inspections rose to 1.15 million tons in the latest week from 769,698 tons previously. The crop was also rated 58% good-to-excellent, unchanged from the prior week.

Soybeans Fall to 1-Month Low

The Nikkei 225 Index fell 0.8% to below 65,500, while the broader Topix Index dropped 1.4% to 4,055 on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous session as global bond yields climbed higher amid expectations that energy-driven inflation will prompt tighter monetary policy. Japanese shares also followed overnight declines on Wall Street as the US 10-year yield rose above 5.2%, while the 30-year yield stood at 5.55%. Meanwhile, oil prices resumed their advance after Iranian officials reportedly expressed doubts about reaching a deal before the US midterm elections in November, following President Donald Trump’s rejection of Tehran’s latest proposal. Notable declines were recorded among heavyweight technology, financial and consumer stocks, including SoftBank Group (-2.1%), Mitsubishi UFJ (-2.5%), and Toyota Motor (-2.7%).

Japanese Shares Fall on Rising Yields

Silver traded around $60.5 an ounce on Tuesday after tumbling nearly 6% in the previous session, as persistent uncertainty over US-Iran negotiations kept oil prices elevated and increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten policy further to curb inflation. Oil prices resumed their advance as Iranian officials reportedly expressed doubt about reaching a deal before US midterm elections in November, following President Donald Trump’s rejection of Tehran’s latest proposal. Treasury yields climbed to fresh multi-year highs amid growing inflation concerns and expectations of further rate hikes, weighing on non-yielding metals. Markets are now pricing in roughly a 70% probability of a Fed rate increase in October, following the central bank’s first rate hike in three years earlier this month. Attention now shifts to this week’s US economic data, including Wednesday’s PCE inflation report and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls figures, for further clues on the policy outlook.

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